With 100 Thieves’ VALORANT Champions Tour Challengers Week 3 loss to Luminosity Gaming, the squad now sits with a 0-3 record and has an uphill battle for playoffs. But, there is a sliver of light for fans of the First Strike: North America winners, as there are still scenarios in which 100 Thieves make it out of the group stage and into the VCT playoffs. But they would need to smash their competition to make it happen.
100 Thieves win their next two games
100 Thieves do still hold their VCT playoff stage destiny in their hands, somewhat. If the team wins their next two matches, against XSET and Evil Geniuses, they can still make it through to the playoffs as long as XSET and Evil Geniuses lose their final two matches.
But, if XSET go 1-1 over the next two weeks, beating Luminosity Gaming and dropping to 100 Thieves, the VCT Stage 3: Masters Berlin representatives will tie with XSET, at 2-3, to make the deciding factor the head-to-head matchup against the two teams according to the NA VCT rulebook. With 100 Thieves having the match win against XSET in this scenario, they would automatically qualify for the playoffs. Evil Geniuses would be a non-factor since 100 Thieves will have to beat them to force the tie.
If Luminosity Gaming, 100 Thieves and XSET all go 2-3, then the two teams with the worst map win percentage then round win percentage and then pre-group stage seed — determined in that order — throughout the group stage will play a best-of-three match to decide fourth place, and the final spot in the playoffs. If 100 Thieves manage to have a better map and round win percentage over the final two matches, they might even be able to skip the best-of-three to go into the playoffs as the third seed.
100 Thieves go 1-1 in their next two games
If 100 Thieves only manage to win one game, then their chances of making the playoff stage go down significantly. In this scenario, 100 Thieves would need to beat XSET and hope that they lose to Luminosity in the final day after 100 Thieves lose to Evil Geniuses the day before. This would force another three-way tie and best-of-three, this time with the two best teams of the bunch facing off for the fourth place spot and the worst team getting eliminated. So 100 Thieves could still be eliminated if they give away a map in their win or take too many rounds to beat XSET.
Conclusion: 100 Thieves need to beat XSET to have a chance
The only way 100 Thieves can continue their VCT Stage 1 campaign is getting a game in the win column against XSET next week. Without that, even with a win against Evil Geniuses, 100 Thieves will not continue to the VCT playoffs.